Decision calculator
Adjust conversion and continuation probabilities. See where the preferred call changes.
How much is the next possession worth?
Compare all three calls using the same assumed continuation values.
| Policy | Modeled win chance |
|---|---|
| Go for itConvert or turn it over on downsHighest under these inputs | 52.32% |
| Kick the field goalMake or miss | 48.40% |
| PuntTransfer possession | 43.00% |
Go matches or exceeds the better of kick and punt at this conversion rate, holding every other input fixed.
Difference in percentage points versus the field goal.
See the arithmetic
Gop × W(convert) + (1 − p) × W(fail)52% × 72% + 48% × 31% = 52.32%
Kickf × W(make) + (1 − f) × W(miss)68% × 58% + 32% × 28% = 48.40%
Threshold[max(W(kick), W(punt)) − W(fail)] ÷ [W(convert) − W(fail)]If the denominator is negative, the inequality reverses. Equal branch values have no unique threshold.
Illustrative, uncalibrated inputs. The arithmetic is exact for this simplified model. Team strength, kicker range, weather and play duration need a validated data model before these become game recommendations. Keep continuation values internally consistent.
Default values are teaching assumptions. A sensitivity crossover shows how this model behaves; it does not establish a league-wide policy.